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With most currency pairs still stuck within summer trading ranges and the forex trading market jittering between risk aversion and normality, a plethora of fundamental announcements this week could shake things up a bit. These event risks include: Read More
A pivotal week for long-term forex trading trends, with multiple currency pairs breaking free from summer logjams.
The RBA left rates on hold at 3.0%, as expected, and removed the dovish stance from the accompanying statement as the economy added 32.2K jobs, all part-time, and the unemployment rate held at 5.8%. July PMIs printed 44.5 manufacturing, 44.1 services, and 39.5 construction. June retail sales fell −1.4% m/m, while 2Q2009 retail sales rose 2.0% q/q ex-inflation. June trade balance printed a deficit of AU$441M and the 2Q2009 house price index gained 4.2% q/q, improving to −1.4% y/y. AUD/USD managed merely a 0.2% gain this week despite RBA optimism, proving unable to hold gains above 0.8450 early on and sinking to close at 0.8355. Read More
Often during the summer doldrums, the forex trading market flirts with psychologically important highs and lows. The traders remaining within the market take advantage of the Northern Hemisphere’s holiday-thinned volumes and higher volatility, pushing and testing support and resistance levels. By their nature, these significant highs and lows sometimes prove insupportable, unable to hold as other traders return from holidays and the market volumes deepen; however, sometimes these levels prove prophetic. Read More
Week ending 31 July 2009: The RBA meets Tuesday, 4 August, and are widely expected to maintain steady rates at 3.0%. The Conference Board’s May leading index fell −0.1% as 2Q2009 NAB business confidence improved to −4 from −24. June new home sales rose 0.5% m/m while June private sector credit was roughly flat at 0.1% m/m, 3.4% y/y. July TD Securities inflation measure surged 0.9% m/m, 1.9% y/y. AUD/USD rose convincingly above resistance at 0.8160 and turned it to support, setting a new high for 2009, consolidating a monthly appreciation of 3.7%, and closing at 0.8363. Read More
Recent “green shoots” have pushed multiple USD crosses to the extreme bearish edges of their current trading ranges, and, in the case of AUD/USD, to a new 2009 high. However, there has been a distinct lack of follow through in subsequent trading sessions despite low summer volumes keeping chart movements volatile, and therefore currencies continue to consolidate at this psychologically important level, building pressure for potential breaks, continuation or reversal, of these ranges. Read More
Week ending 24 July 2009: In a week nearly bereft of fundamental data, corporate earnings remain mixed, with some impressive blowouts contrasting with stunning disappointments. The combination is keeping currencies, equities, commodities, and bond markets scrambling amongst low summer volumes.
Australia’s 2Q2009 PPI printed −0.8% q/q, 2.1% y/y, and CPI 0.5% q/q, 1.5% y/y. July DEWR skilled vacancies fell −1.7% m/m. AUD/USD rose on Monday to resistance at 0.8160 and battled it for the remainder of the forex trading week. Friday New York closing found the pair unable to hold gains above 0.8200, ending at 0.8167 for a gain of 1.7%. Read More
Week ending 17 July 2009: With corporate earnings surprising mainly to the upside, equities indices surged although commodities prices traded mixed. In a light data week, currency pairs remained within their summer ranges, with one notable exception.
Australia’s June NAB business confidence improved to 4 and conditions to −2, with 2Q2009 import prices falling −6.4% q/q and exports −20.6%. The May Westpac leading index fell −0.2% m/m. AUD/USD rose 2.6% in the week, mainly in the early days on enthusiasm following the Goldman Sachs earnings, and returned to its June range above 0.7880 although it could not hold gains above 0.8040, closing at 0.8016. Read More
Week ending 10 July 2009: With the onset of 2Q 2009 corporate earnings season, risk aversion returned to financial markets, giving the safe-haven currencies a small lift. Commodities fell, taking growth currencies with them.
The RBA left interest rates steady at 3.0% but emphasized downside economic risks. June unemployment ticked up to 5.8% with 21.4K jobs lost as job advertisements fell −6.7% m/m. July Westpac consumer confidence rose 9.3%, consumer inflation expectations 3.2%, and June AiG Performance of Construction index fell to 42.6. AUD/USD fell and held beneath the bottom of its current range, closing at 0.7784, its lowest level since 28 May 2009. Read More
