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And so the potential double top in EUR/USD (and its correlated currency pair, USD/CHF) appears to have fizzled out, alongside repeated expectations of a U.S. dollar bounce. This returns forex traders to the original call of ongoing USD weakness and possible parity with CHF, with a run on the historic EUR/USD high of 1.6037 not outside all bounds. Read More
USD continued to lose ground this forex trading week, as cautious optimism sought risk and rewards, pushing select commodities and equities ever higher. Gold set another historic record at $1070.45, crude oil topped $77/bbl.
Australia’s September NAB business confidence fell slightly to 14, business conditions to 3, while October consumer confidence improved 1.7% m/m. October inflation expectations remain at 3.5%. AUD/USD gained 1.5% on rate differential expectations, respecting its regression channel and closing at 0.9171. Read More
The big forex trading news this week is the RBA rate hike. Although only 25bps, from 3.0% previous to 3.25% current, it’s the first amongst the G-20 nations since the global financial crisis began and Governor Stevens didn’t hesitate to mention more can be safely expected.
AUD/USD jumped on the news, rallying almost 140 pips in the day to set a new 2009 high at 0.8918. On technical analysis, a regression channel drawn from 14 July on daily charts puts the current trend in the channel’s midst with plenty of room to move higher. The price action is well above its MA-200. And a Fibonacci retracement, drawn from 13 July’s low of 0.7700 to 4 August’s reaction high of 0.8469 shows the pullback to the 38.2% line, with the full retracement retesting the naught point repeatedly until finally breaking through on 4 September, presumably on the better-than-expected U.S. jobs report released that date. Read More
Positive glimmers among light data kept traders engaged this forex trading week. Commodities rocked and equities rose on general risk acceptance. Corporate earnings season could well drive markets next week. Several majors set new 2009 highs versus USD and gold set historic highs four days straight.
The RBA astonished markets with a 25bp rate hike, then looked fairly clever next day when September employment gained 40.6K jobs and the rate fell to 5.7%. September PMIs printed 49.3 services, 50.8 construction, and the August trade deficit narrowed to AU$1524Mn, less than markets anticipated. AUD/USD continued to climb within its regression channel, drawn from 14 July, rising 4.4% to a new 2009 high of 0.9089 before closing at 0.9036. Read More
The battle between risk acceptance and risk aversion continues, with equities, commodities, and global political rhetoric driving currency movements. General risk aversion returned from disappointing U.S. consumer and employment data.
The RBA meets Tuesday, 6 October, and is expected to maintain rates at 3.0%. August retail sales increased 0.9% m/m, with private sector credit rising merely 0.1% m/m, 2.5% y/y. September AiG PMI manufacturing survey improved to 52.0 but September RBA commodity index is down −32.3% y/y. AUD/USD rose to a 2009 high of 0.8858 before falling on risk aversion, breaking and closing beneath its trendline at 0.8634, as shown on the four-hour chart below: Read More
In a light data week, the first intimation from the FOMC regarding withdrawing liquidity supplies from financial markets caused resurgent risk aversion and some USD strength. Commodities and equities weakened, taking the commodity dollars with them, but still not beyond current ranges.
Australia’s August new home sales surged 11.4% m/m but September DEWR skilled vacancies rose a more tepid 1.2%. AUD/USD consolidated between roughly 0.8600 and 0.8800, but with possible potential bullish pressure building. Read More
The Bank for International Settlements is preparing to initiate its triennial survey of the forex trading market. 54 central banks and more than 4,000 financial institutions are expected to cooperate with and contribute to the survey, scheduled for April and June of 2010.
This survey assumes a significance not shared by its predecessors. The twelve months immediately past witnessed a financial storm of the worst magnitude. No market fully escaped that impact, not even the super-liquid, ultra-deep forex trading market, and banking regulators and politicians of all stripes are eager to examine the detritus, either to correct mistakes which may have contributed to the storm’s severity, or doubtless to find some means of taxing them. Read More
A bullish forex trading week turns jittery, with gold nearing historic highs and the U.S. dollar striking 2009 lows against multiple currencies.
September RBA meeting minutes indicate a rate hike isn’t likely in October. 2Q2009 dwelling starts fell −3.7% q/q and the July Westpac-MI leading index growth rate slid to −1.8% annualised. AUD/USD pushed through previous resistance at 0.8650 then consolidated its gains, closing at 0.8672. Read More
