Forex Trading Australia, FX Trading Strategies

Markets shrugged off the Dubai World debt crisis and resumed the bull rally, but the better-than-expected U.S. jobs report changed the game, boosting USD while constraining commodities and their currencies. Gold withdrew from historic highs.

The RBA raised interest rates by 25bps to 3.75%. October retail sales rose 0.3% m/m, new home sales declined −0.6%, and private sector credit continued its downward trajectory both m/m and y/y. November PMIs printed 51.2 manufacturing, 52.5 services, and the RBA commodities index improved to −25.3 y/y. AUD/USD climbed to test 0.9325 for the second consecutive week only to fall back again, this time driven by the U.S. jobs data, closing at 0.9142. Read More

The forex trading week was shortened by a U.S. holiday, which withdrew liquidity from the market and intensified price action. It was perhaps not the best time for sovereign debt worries to strike financial markets, as the bullish, risk-happy opening to the week dissolved into a risk-averse sell-off by Friday close.

Australia’s 3Q2009 capex worried markets with a −3.9% contraction and the Conference Board’s September leading index with a payback to 0.3%. However, strong results from November DEWR skilled vacancies, October motor vehicle sales, and 3Q2009 construction work done helped offset some of the losses. AUD/USD slammed beneath its nine-month trendline on the Dubai scare, falling as low as 0.8946 before recovering to close at 0.9075. Read More

In a light data week, the forex trading market opened on a strong note but was rocked midweek by risk aversion and protectionism from emerging economies fighting currency appreciation. Dealer chatter discussed a global and particularly U.S. economic “stall zone” as effects of government stimulus schemes wane. Read More

Yet another week of consolidation and fidgety investors. Gold hits new historic highs above $1,118 yet EUR/USD cannot hold gains above 1.5000.

The Australian economy gained 2.9K fulltime jobs and 21.5K part-time ones, with the October unemployment rate ticking up to 5.8%. October NAB business confidence improved to 16, business conditions to 12, but November Westpac consumer confidence declined −2.5% m/m. AUD/USD gained 1.6% in the week and posted a new 2009 high of 0.9369, but ultimately respected resistance at 0.9350 and closed at 0.9340. Read More

A mixed data week left the forex trading market jittery and undecided. The U.S. dollar could not break key resistance levels and remained rangebound. Gold topped $1,100.

The RBA raised rates 25bps to 3.5% and increased GDP forecasts. October PMIs printed 51.7 manufacturing, 54.8 services, and 50.9 construction. October inflation expectations eased to 1.2% y/y, 3Q2009 house price index rose 6.2% y/y, and September building approvals surged 11.7% y/y. September retail sales disappointed at −0.2% m/m, 3Q2009 retail sales ex-inflation −0.4% q/q, and the trade deficit, although better than forecast, still posted an 18-month high of AU$1849M. AUD/USD gained 1.9% on the interest rate differential (carry trade), bouncing from support at 0.8918 and closing at 0.9177 Read More

The long-expected correction snagged on a reversal Thursday from the better-than-expected U.S. GDP print, which hit its own reversal Friday as risk aversion again entered markets. The S&P scored negative for the first time since February, USD and JPY gained ground, and the VIX volatility index gained 24%.

Australia 3Q2009 NAB business confidence surged to 16 from −4 and the August Conference Board leading index gained 1.8% m/m. 3Q2009 PPI printed 0.1% q/q, 0.2% y/y, well below trend and weaker than anticipated, while CPI printed 1.0% q/q, 1.3% y/y, slightly above expectations. September private sector credit contracted −0.2% m/m, 1.7% y/y. AUD/USD bounced with the rest this week, closing at 0.9001. If support at 0.8920 fails, look for a Fibonacci short to 0.8700, as shown on the four-hour chart, below: Read More

On 24 July, AUD/CAD bounced from support at 0.8800 and initiated a strong uptrend that has pushed the currency pair to touch its historic high at 0.9837, a run of 1,000 pips which restored it to its pre-Lehman strength. However, at this psychologically important level, AUD/CAD is showing signs of taking a consolidating breather.

On the daily chart, below, the initiation of the bull run is marked with a vertical pink line. The touch of the historic high, above its three-month regression channel, is on the upper right of the chart: Read More

The forex trading week was short on fundamental data but long on rhetoric and corporate earnings, in a positive-negative mix that kept markets lively.

Westpac August leading index gained 1.1% m/m, import prices were down −3.0% q/q, export prices −9.6% q/q, an improvement over the previous −20.6%. Bullish RBA meeting minutes only helped AUD slightly. AUD/USD set a new 2009 high at 0.9327 but could not hold gains, consolidating its position and closing at 0.9221. Read More