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Trading the U.S. GDP and FOMC, and RBNZ, announcements

The U.S. GDP announcement for the first quarter of 2009 is slated for release 29 April 2009 at 12:30 PM GMT (10:30 PM Canberra time) and is widely expected to contract somewhere between −4.0% and −5.0%. Although economic conditions have not improved significantly between 1Q2009 and 4Q2008, contractions in such categories as consumer spending and [...]

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Trading the U.S. GDP announcement

The first estimate of 4Q2008 U.S. gross domestic product will be released by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis on 30 January 2009 at 8:30 AM Eastern time, or 11:30 PM Canberra time. Most economic analysts are expecting a drop of at least −4.5 to −5.0% in the fourth quarter of 2008, [...]

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TIC flows: key to understanding USD appreciation

One of the helpful fundamental datasets provided by the U.S. Treasury Department is the monthly Treasury International Capital data, or TIC flows (always measured in USD). This is designed to monitor the “flow of funds” into and out of the United States, by measuring the amount of foreign securities purchased by U.S. citizens, and the [...]

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USD: a case for intervention

A number of financial analysts are discussing the case for coordinated central bank intervention to support and strengthen the U.S. dollar. Such discussions often focus on the fact that, when one of the major economic players on the globalised financial stage isn’t carrying its weight, the whole show suffers. In the case of USD, of [...]

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