The forex trading week was shortened by a U.S. holiday
The forex trading week was shortened by a U.S. holiday, which withdrew liquidity from the market and intensified price action. It was perhaps not the best time for sovereign debt worries to strike financial markets, as the bullish, risk-happy opening to the week dissolved into a risk-averse sell-off by Friday close.
Australia’s 3Q2009 capex worried markets with a −3.9% contraction and the Conference Board’s September leading index with a payback to 0.3%. However, strong results from November DEWR skilled vacancies, October motor vehicle sales, and 3Q2009 construction work done helped offset some of the losses. AUD/USD slammed beneath its nine-month trendline on the Dubai scare, falling as low as 0.8946 before recovering to close at 0.9075.
U.S. 3Q2009 GDP was revised down to 2.8% annualised from 3.5% first estimate. November consumer confidence edged slightly higher, personal spending improved, and initial jobless claims dropped beneath 500K per week for the first time since January. October new and existing home sales rose on federal stimulus schemes, while durable goods orders fell −0.6% m/m, −1.3% ex-transport.
Eurozone November PMIs printed 51.0 manufacturing, 53.2 services, and 53.7 composite, all above the 50 break-even level. September industrial new orders gained 1.5% m/m, −16.5% y/y, and November confidence surveys improved for all categories—economic, business, services industrial, and consumers—reaching the highest level since the Lehman collapse. EUR/USD climbed to 1.5144, a new 2009 high, before the Dubai sell-off, closing at 1.4967.
The U.K. 3Q2009 GDP printed −0.3% q/q, −5.1% y/y, with improvements recorded in private consumption and business investment, while government spending showed its growth. 3Q2009 imports rose 1.3% q/q, exports 0.5%. BBA mortgage growth improved but not to market expectations. GBP/USD dropped sharply but remained within its established trading range, closing at 1.6471. EUR/GBP rose as high as 0.9132 before falling to close at 0.9083.
Canada’s September retail sales surged 1.0% m/m, 1.1% ex-autos and the 3Q2009 BoP current account widened. USD/CAD traded both ends of its current range, between 1.0750 and 1.0425, before closing at 1.0613. AUD/CAD traded off to close at 0.9631.
New Zealand’s NBNZ November business confidence declined to 43.4 from 48.2 previous and the October trade balance improved but not as far as expected. USD/NZD also went down hard, breaking through the bottom line of a consolidation triangle before paring losses to close at 0.7095.
Japan’s October jobless rate improved to 5.1% and the job-to-applicant ratio rose off historic lows. October household spending improved 1.6% y/y as CPI printed −2.5% y/y, −2.2% ex-fresh food, and −1.1% ex-fresh food and energy. The merchandise trade imports measured down −35.6% y/y, exports −23.2%. The BoJ minutes raised the bank’s growth forecasts while the government threatened to coordinate intervention with U.S. and Eurozone monetary officials. USD/JPY continued its eight-month downtrend, falling to a 14-year low of 84.80 before paring its losses and closing at 86.56. EUR/JPY also broke beneath its consolidating triangle, falling as low as 126.87 before closing at 129.57. AUD/JPY also gave up some hard-won gains, falling beneath long-term support at 80.40 and closing at 78.56. In November, AUD/JPY has now set a lower high and a lower low than in October, indicating either a new downtrend or consolidation near its current level.
