A mixed data week left the forex trading market jittery and undecided. The U.S. dollar could not break key resistance levels and remained rangebound. Gold topped $1,100.

The RBA raised rates 25bps to 3.5% and increased GDP forecasts. October PMIs printed 51.7 manufacturing, 54.8 services, and 50.9 construction. October inflation expectations eased to 1.2% y/y, 3Q2009 house price index rose 6.2% y/y, and September building approvals surged 11.7% y/y. September retail sales disappointed at −0.2% m/m, 3Q2009 retail sales ex-inflation −0.4% q/q, and the trade deficit, although better than forecast, still posted an 18-month high of AU$1849M. AUD/USD gained 1.9% on the interest rate differential (carry trade), bouncing from support at 0.8918 and closing at 0.9177

The Fed left rates steady at 0.0–0.25%; subtle changes in the announcement indicated the FOMC awaits improvements in utilisation, including labour, prior to raising rates. Three separate October employment indicators gave mixed readings, with private-sector ADP and government non-farm payrolls down more than expected, but weekly claims down less; the rate reached 10.2%. October PMIs printed 55.7 manufacturing, 50.6 services, and September pending home sales gained 19.8% y/y, construction spending 0.8% m/m, and factory orders 0.9% m/m. September consumer credit shrank by US$14.8Bn.

The ECB left rates at 1.0%, as expected. October PMIs printed 50.7 manufacturing, 52.6 services, and 53.0 composite. September retail sales printed 0.7% m/m, −3.6% y/y, and September PPI −0.4% m/m, −7.7% y/y. EUR/USD dropped back into its regression channel, bounced from trendline support, and returned to trend, closing at 1.4845.

The BoE left rates at 0.5% and raised their asset purchase programme by £25B, less than market expectations, extending their timeline to phase out purchases. October PMIs printed 53.7 manufacturing, 56.9 services, and 46.2 construction, while consumer confidence held at 72. September industrial production improved 1.6% m/m, −10.3% y/y, and manufacturing production 1.7% m/m, −9.3% y/y. The NIESR October estimate of GDP printed −0.4% m/m, while October PPI printed input 2.6% m/m, 0.1% y/y, output 0.2% m/m, 1.7% y/y, and output core 0.3% m/m, 2.0% y/y. GBP/USD consolidated between support at 1.6265 and resistance at 1.6635, closing at 1.6607. EUR/GBP could not breach support at 0.8928, closing at 0.8936.

Canada’s October jobs data disappointed, with a loss of 43.2K jobs and the rate hitting 8.6%. However, the October Ivey PMI surged to 61.2. USD/CAD consolidated between support at 1.0600 and resistance at 1.0850, closing at 1.0750. AUD/CAD hit its highest level in at least two years, just beneath parity, closing at 0.9865.

New Zealand’s 3Q2009 unemployment rate hit 6.5%, with employment falling −0.8% q/q, −1.8% y/y. However, labor costs rose 0.4% q/q and hourly earnings 1.7%. NZD/USD jittered off support at 0.7160, closing at 0.7242. AUD/NZD rose on the interest rate differential, closing at 1.2662.

Japan’s September labor cash earnings eased its decline at −1.6% y/y, which may ease deflationary pressures. September leading index printed 86.4, better than expected, the coincident index 92.5. USD/JPY consolidated in the week, closing at 89.95. AUD/JPY gained 1.5% in the week, closing at 82.54. EUR/JPY on daily charts is consolidating within a tightening triangle, between resistance at 138.45 and a bullish trendline, reinforced by the MA-200, as shown below: