The long-expected correction snagged on a reversal Thursday from the better-than-expected U.S. GDP print, which hit its own reversal Friday as risk aversion again entered markets. The S&P scored negative for the first time since February, USD and JPY gained ground, and the VIX volatility index gained 24%.

Australia 3Q2009 NAB business confidence surged to 16 from −4 and the August Conference Board leading index gained 1.8% m/m. 3Q2009 PPI printed 0.1% q/q, 0.2% y/y, well below trend and weaker than anticipated, while CPI printed 1.0% q/q, 1.3% y/y, slightly above expectations. September private sector credit contracted −0.2% m/m, 1.7% y/y. AUD/USD bounced with the rest this week, closing at 0.9001. If support at 0.8920 fails, look for a Fibonacci short to 0.8700, as shown on the four-hour chart, below:

The Fed meets Wednesday and markets will listen carefully for any hint of exit plan initiation. First-estimate 3Q2009 GDP thrilled with 3.5% annualised, but details worried with the 3.4% quarterly consumption due to the “cash-for-clunkers” scheme and core consumption falling to 1.4%. October consumer confidence sank back to 47.7, the weekly to −51. September personal income printed flat, personal spending −0.5% m/m, PCE core 0.1%. September durable goods rose 1.0% m/m, ex-transportation 0.9%, new home sales decreased −3.6%, and initial jobless claims remained at 530K.

ECB meets Thursday and no change is expected. October confidence surveys printed slightly better than expectations save consumer confidence, which printed inline. First estimate of October CPI held at −0.1% y/y and September unemployment ticked up to 9.7%. German retail sales and consumer confidence both declined and the Eurozone M3 contracted y/y. EUR/USD lost 1.9% and followed risk trends, bouncing then closing at 1.4716. Note that the Fibonacci trade is not as strong here.

The BoE meets Thursday and QE measures might be altered. October consumer confidence improved to −13 and distributive trades to 8. September mortgage approvals rose slightly, consumer credit shrank, and the M4 improved y/y. Sterling gained in the week, with GBP/USD closing at 1.6414 and EUR/GBP at 0.8963.

Canada’s August GDP contracted −0.1% m/m and September raw material price index slid −1.1% m/m. USD/CAD closed at 1.0815, also setting up a strong possible Fibonacci trade with target at resistance near 1.1080. AUD/CAD consolidated between 0.9670 and 0.9836, closing at 0.9734.

the RBNZ kept rates at 2.5% and affirmed steady rates through much of 2010. October NBNZ business confidence declined to 48.2, and the September trade deficit beat expectations at $424M, with exports holding steady and imports falling. NZD/USD fell hard through its long-term trendline, losing in five days the trading gains of the month and closing at 0.7173. AUD/NZD rose as hard, closing at 1.2540 on what looks to be a new bullish trend.

The BoJ kept rates steady at 0.10% but announced corporate paper purchases would expire in December, as planned. National September CPI printed −2.2% y/y, ex-fresh food −2.3%, and core −1.0%. September retail trade improved 0.9% m/m, −1.4% y/y, and industrial production 1.4% m/m, −18.9% y/y. The September jobless rate ticked down to 5.3%, household spending rose 1.0%, and October manufacturing PMI printed 54.3. The yen gained against all comers, with USD/JPY closing at 90.00, EUR/JPY at 132.45, and AUD/JPY at 81.00.