The forex trading week was short on fundamental data but long on rhetoric and corporate earnings, in a positive-negative mix that kept markets lively.

Westpac August leading index gained 1.1% m/m, import prices were down −3.0% q/q, export prices −9.6% q/q, an improvement over the previous −20.6%. Bullish RBA meeting minutes only helped AUD slightly. AUD/USD set a new 2009 high at 0.9327 but could not hold gains, consolidating its position and closing at 0.9221.

U.S. September PPI was weaker than expected at −0.6% m/m, −4.8% y/y, with core −0.1% m/m, 1.8% y/y. September existing home sales blew out expectations at 9.4% m/m as first-time buyers rushed to take advantage of expiring tax breaks. September housing starts improved but not to market expectations, mortgage applications and September building permits fell, August housing prices contracted, while weekly jobless claims rose and weekly consumer confidence sank further. The Fed Beige Book spoke of possible trouble brewing in commercial real estate markets.

Eurozone October PMIs printed 52.3 services, 50.7 manufacturing, and 53.0 composite, with August industrial new orders improving 2.0% m/m, −23.1 y/y. In Germany, the October Ifo survey mainly disappointed, with 91.9 business climate, 87.3 current assessment, and only 96.8 expectations beating market expectations. EUR/USD rose above its bullish regression channel and also set a new 2009 high at 1.5060 before closing at 1.4995.

U.K. 3Q2009 GDP shocked with a −0.4% q/q contraction, −5.2% y/y, and September retail sales also disappointed, printing flat m/m, 2.4% y/y. October Rightmove house prices continued to improve, showing positive y/y, and while September public finances were higher than expected, public borrowing was lower. GBP/USD gained steadily through the week to Friday’s GDP print then rolled off the cliff, falling 300+ pips to close at 1.6305. EUR/GBP touched the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement Friday then reversed hard, closing at 0.9194. The 100% retracement is 13 October’s high of 0.9410, as shown on the four-hour chart, below:

The BoC left rates at 0.25%, as expected. August retail sales surged 0.8% m/m, double market expectations, and rose 0.5% ex-autos although wholesale sales fell −1.4% m/m. September leading indicators improved 1.1% m/m, and August international securities transactions also doubled market expectations, gaining CA$5.082Bn. USD/CAD lost 1.5% on the week from BoC Governor Carney’s anger at CAD strength, breaking above its bearish deviation channel and closing at 1.0524. AUD/CAD surged 2.1% to a new 2009 high at 0.9751, closing at 0.9701.

New Zealand’s September PMI services improved to 53.2 but credit card spending contracted −2.3% y/y. NZD/USD gained 1.8%, setting a new 2009 high of 0.7633 and closing at 0.7538. AUD/NZD could not hold the previous two weeks’ gains, falling to close at 1.2222.

Japan’s September trade surplus rose to ¥520.6Bn, adjusted ¥58.6Bn, with merchandise exports improving to −30.7% y/y, imports to −36.9%. August tertiary index rose 0.3% m/m and the all-industry activity index 0.9%, but September machine tool orders fell further to −62.1% y/y. The yen weakened on economic uncertainty. USD/JPY climbed steadily for much of the forex trading week, closing at 92.06. EUR/JPY rose sharply to 138.05, and AUD/JPY also set a new 2009 high of 85.30, closing at 84.88.