A bullish forex trading week turns jittery, with gold nearing historic highs and the U.S. dollar striking 2009 lows against multiple currencies.

September RBA meeting minutes indicate a rate hike isn’t likely in October. 2Q2009 dwelling starts fell −3.7% q/q and the July Westpac-MI leading index growth rate slid to −1.8% annualised. AUD/USD pushed through previous resistance at 0.8650 then consolidated its gains, closing at 0.8672.

The FOMC meets Wednesday, 23 September, and is expected to maintain a steady course both for QE and the interest rate at 0.0–0.25%. August advance retail sales surged 2.7% m/m, 1.1% ex-autos, and 0.6% ex-autos and petrol. August CPI printed 0.4% m/m, −1.5% y/y, and core 1.4% y/y, while PPI printed 1.7% m/m, −4.3% y/y, and core 2.3% y/y. August industrial production rose 0.8% m/m, while capacity utilisation, housing starts, regional Fed surveys, and unemployment claims for week ending 12 September all showed marginal improvement. 2Q2009 current account deficit narrowed to US$98.8Bn, while July long-term TIC flows slowed to a trickle and total TIC flows turned negative.

Eurozone August CPI printed 0.3% m/m, −0.2% y/y, and core 1.3% y/y. The July trade balance widened strongly to €12.6Bn, the current account to €6.6Bn, and 2Q2009 employment contracted −0.5% q/q, −1.8% y/y. ZEW economic sentiment survey improved to 59.6, with Germany printing 57.7 and −74.0 for current situation. EUR/USD strengthened to graze the upper boundary of its regression channel, best seen on daily charts, but couldn’t hold its highest levels, closing at 1.4702.

U.K. August jobless claims rose 24.4K, in line with estimates, with the ILO unemployment rate rising to 7.9%. August CPI rose 0.4% m/m, 1.6% y/y, the core 1.8% y/y, and August retail sales were flat, up 2.1% y/y. More worrying, August public borrowing soared and the M4 money supply contracted severely. July DCLG house prices improved to −8.3% y/y. The pound slumped against most majors on banking stability rumours, with GBP/USD closing at 1.6234 and EUR/GBP at 0.9053.

Canada’s August CPI printed 0.0% m/m, −0.8% y/y, with core 1.6% y/y. August leading indicators printed 1.1% m/m, stronger than markets anticipated; however, 2Q2009 labor productivity printed flat. USD/CAD continued lower but couldn’t push through 1.0600, closing at 1.0694, while AUD/CAD remained rangebound between 0.9365 and 0.9250, closing down at 0.9271.

New Zealand’s July retail sales slid −0.5% m/m, also −0.5% ex-autos, August manufacturing PMI eased down to 48.7, and 2Q2009 manufacturing activity contracted −4.8%. 2Q2009 real manufacturing sales, however, rose 1.8% and August house sales rose 39.0% y/y. NZD/USD resumed its bullish trendline and rose to test resistance at 0.7160 before closing at 0.7085, and AUD/NZD continued rangetrading between 1.2200 and 1.2300, closing at 1.2233.

The BoJ met Thursday, 17 September, and left rates at 0.10% while easing their growth projections slightly higher. 3Q2009 BSI blew markets away, surging 0.3 for all large industries, 15.5 for large manufacturers, and the July tertiary index rose 0.6% m/m. The yen remained supported by corporate repatriations and the new administration’s rhetoric. USD/JPY respected support above 90.00, closing at 91.37. EUR/JPY regained last week’s losses, rising to close at 134.35. AUD/JPY also recovered lost ground but couldn’t push through resistance at 79.60, closing at 79.22.