As the most volatile of months for forex trading approaches, many currencies and commodities, including USD, gold, and crude oil, are all trading near significant pivotal levels. Equities markets in China whipsawed at the week’s end, the S&P500 rose to 2009 highs, and global central bankers, including Fed Chairman Bernanke, proclaim the cusp of recovery even as they warn of continuing dangers.

The June Westpac-MI leading index improved to −3.3% from −5.3% previous. AUD/USD maintained its August range between 0.8160 and 0.8450, testing its lower levels early in the week and closing at 0.8332.

U.S. July PPI printed −0.9% m/m, −6.8% y/y, and core −0.1% m/m, 2.6% y/y. July existing home sales surged 7.2% and June net long-term TIC flows to US$90.7Bn. August regional manufacturing indices also rose, the Philly to 4.2 from −7.5, the Empire to 12.08 from −0.55, although August weekly jobless claims edged higher and weekly consumer confidence remains at drastically low levels.

Eurozone August PMIs pleasantly surprised, printing 47.9 manufacturing, 49.5 services, and 50.0 composite, driven by French manufacturing and German services both pushing above the breakeven 50.0 level. August ZEW economic sentiment survey beat expectations as well, improving to 54.9 from 39.5. The June trade balance maintained a surplus of €4.6Bn, even as June construction output declined −8.8% y/y and July German PPI fell −7.8% y/y. EUR/USD continues trading within a bullish regression channel drawn from 15 June’s price bar, best seen on daily charts, closing at 1.4335. Resistance at 1.4335 held, with the next bullish level at 1.4435 from the previous week.

The latest BoE minutes rocked the pound sterling as the decision to increase QE spending was unanimous, the only dissent being the size of the increase; M4 growth has been weaker than expected but in July rose 1.0% m/m, 13.6% y/y. July public spending blew out estimates at £8.0Bn. July CPI printed 0.0% m/m, 1.8% y/y, and 1.8% y/y core, and retail sales remained positive at 0.4% m/m, 3.3% y/y. GBP/USD fell early in the week but recovered ground although it could not push through resistance at 1.6600, closing at 1.6486. EUR/GBP surged on Eurozone PMIs and U.K. finances, shooting decisively through psychologically important 0.8600 resistance to close at 0.8693.

Canada’s July CPI printed −0.3% m/m, −0.9% y/y, core 0.0% m/m, 1.8% y/y. July leading indicator rose 0.4% m/m and June wholesale sales 0.6%. USD/CAD could not hold gains above 1.1080 nor could it force through 1.0760, closing between at 1.0817 for a 1.6% gain in the week. AUD/CAD fell below its regression channel drawn from 24 July’s low of 0.8794, below its 200-MA on four-hour charts, and closed at 0.9013.

New Zealand’s 2Q2009 PPI printed 0.0% inputs, −0.7% outputs, and the July PMI services improved to 50.1 from 45.0. NZD/USD held above support at 0.6630, closing at 0.6816. AUD/NZD sagged for the third consecutive week, falling to close at 1.2216.

Japan’s 2Q2009 GDP rose 0.9% q/q, 3.7% annualised. USD/JPY fell below its 200-MA on four-hour charts but bounded higher on the U.S. housing data, staying below the pivotal 95.00 to close at 94.31. EUR/JPY rose slightly to 135.20, while AUD/JPY traded heavy on the questionable Chinese data, trading flat for the week and closing at 78.58.