Week ending 14 August 2009 and the range goes on. Chinese equities indices declined sharply amid worries the rally was overdone, with fundamental data not meeting investor expectations.

RBA Governor Stevens announced the next rate movement would likely be a rise. June investment lending fell −1.8% m/m. July business confidence improved to 10, business conditions to 1. August Westpac consumer confidence rose 3.7% m/m after July’s 9.3% surge, as inflation expectations rose to 3.5%. AUD/USD despite several wild swings remained within the upper portion of its range, posting a ten-month, post-Lehman high of 0.8477 and closing at 0.8302.

The FOMC left rates unchanged at 0.0–0.25% and signalled their emergency QE measures will slow through October. August consumer confidence soured to 63.2 as July advance retail sales fell 0.1% m/m, −0.6% ex-autos. July CPI printed 0.0% m/m, −2.1% y/y, and core 0.1% m/m, 1.5% y/y. July industrial production rose 0.5% and capacity utilization edged up to 68.5%, while the June trade balance widened slightly to a deficit of US$27.0Bn.

In 2Q2009 France and Germany unexpectedly broke their technical recessions but could not drag out the Eurozone, which contracted −0.1% q/q, −4.6% y/y. July CPI printed −0.7% m/m, −0.7% y/y, and 1.3% y/y core. August Sentix investor confidence improved to −17.0 from −31.3 previous. June industrial production dropped −0.6% m/m and −17.0% y/y. EUR/USD traded within a narrowing range in the lower half of its bullish regression channel, drawn from 15 June, best seen on daily charts; to date it’s respecting its MA-200 on four-hour charts, closing above at 1.4189.

The U.K. lost 24.9K jobs in July, better than markets expected; unemployment rose to 4.9%, the ILO rate to 7.8%. The June visible trade balance printed a deficit of £6451Bn. June DCLG housing prices improved to −10.7% y/y, the July RICS house price balance to −8.1%. GBP/USD depreciated early in the week but could not force through the MA-200 on four-hour charts, riding it to close at 1.6529. EUR/GBP climbed strongly but fell back below the important 0.8600 level, closing at 0.8581.

Canada’s July housing starts rose to 140.7K from 137.8K previous. June new housing price index fell −0.2% m/m and the June international trade balance narrowed to a deficit of CA$0.1Bn. USD/CAD moved with equities and crude oil, gaining 1.6% in the week and closing at 1.0995. AUD/CAD climbed within a regression channel, touching a high of 0.9196 before closing at 0.9128.

New Zealand’s June retail sales printed 0.1% m/m, −0.4% ex-autos. July house prices improved to −5.0% y/y and house sales rose 34.0% y/y. NZD/USD pushed as high as 0.6884 before sinking to close at 0.6763, while AUD/NZD fell as low as 1.2241 before closing at 1.2268.

The BoJ left their rates, outlook and QE unchanged. The June balance of payments printed a surplus of ¥602.2Bn. July machine tool orders improved to −72.2% y/y while the EcoWatchers outlook survey faded slightly to 44.9 and July consumer confidence rose to 39.7. On USD/JPY four-hour charts, 7 August’s high of 97.55 to 12 August’s low of 95.11, makes 12 August’s high of 96.74 a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, with the 161.8% target at 93.47; the current close is 94.80. EUR/JPY lost 2.6% in the week and AUD/JPY 3.4%, closing at 134.52 and 78.70 on risk aversion flows.