A pivotal week for long-term forex trading trends, with multiple currency pairs breaking free from summer logjams.

The RBA left rates on hold at 3.0%, as expected, and removed the dovish stance from the accompanying statement as the economy added 32.2K jobs, all part-time, and the unemployment rate held at 5.8%. July PMIs printed 44.5 manufacturing, 44.1 services, and 39.5 construction. June retail sales fell −1.4% m/m, while 2Q2009 retail sales rose 2.0% q/q ex-inflation. June trade balance printed a deficit of AU$441M and the 2Q2009 house price index gained 4.2% q/q, improving to −1.4% y/y. AUD/USD managed merely a 0.2% gain this week despite RBA optimism, proving unable to hold gains above 0.8450 early on and sinking to close at 0.8355.

The U.S. in July lost “only” 247K jobs as auto workers returned to production and construction eased its drag on employment; the jobless rate actually ticked down to 9.4%, mainly on seasonal adjustments, and average weekly hours ticked up to 33.1. July PMIs printed 48.9 manufacturing, 46.4 services. June personal spending rose 0.4% m/m but personal income shrank −1.3%, erasing the previous gain, with the PCE deflator registering −0.4% y/y, 1.5% y/y core. June construction spending rose 0.3% m/m, pending home sales 3.6% and 9.2% y/y, but factory orders fell −0.8%.

As expected, the ECB held rates steady at 1.0% although the announcement was more dovish than anticipated. July PMIs printed 46.3 manufacturing, 45.7 services, and 47.0 composite. June PPI is down −6.6% y/y, June retail sales −0.2% m/m, −2.4% y/y. EUR/USD rose early on risk acceptance but lost those gains on U.S. payrolls, falling back from resistance at 1.4435, beneath the pivotal 1.4335, and closing at 1.4170.

The BoE left rates unchanged at 0.50% but increased their quantitative easing programme, perhaps as a subtle forex intervention. The July NIESR estimate for GDP contracted −0.4%. July PMIs printed 50.8 manufacturing, 47.0 construction, and 53.2 services, and consumer confidence ticked up to 60 from 58 previous. July PPI printed −1.4% m/m input with −12.2 y/y, 0.3% m/m output with −1.3% y/y, and 0.5% m/m output core with 0.2% y/y. June industrial production rose 0.5% m/m, improving to −11.1 y/y, manufacturing production 0.4% m/m, −11.7% y/y. GBP/USD rose early to challenge 1.7000 but fell back to close at 1.6682, while Euro bulls could not push EUR/GBP back to the 0.8600 level, settling for a close at 0.8491.

Canada in July lost −44.5K jobs and the unemployment rate held steady at 8.6%. July Ivey PMI declined to 51.8 but remained in expansionary territory. USD/CAD bounced from support at 1.0655, crossed back above 1.0757, and closed at 1.0821. AUD/CAD trended up for a second week within a regression channel, closing at 0.9041.

New Zealand’s 2Q2009 unemployment rate jumped to 6.0% from 5.0% previous as the participation rate rose. NZD/USD could not hold gains above 0.6750, closing at 0.6719, while AUD/NZD sank through the week to close at support level 1.2424.

Japan’s June leading index improved to 79.8, the coincident index to 87.8. U.S. payrolls hammered the yen, with USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and AUD/JPY all rocketing through important resistance levels, closing at 97.50, 138.15, and 81.46, respectively.