Week ending 31 July 2009: The RBA meets Tuesday, 4 August, and are widely expected to maintain steady rates at 3.0%. The Conference Board’s May leading index fell −0.1% as 2Q2009 NAB business confidence improved to −4 from −24. June new home sales rose 0.5% m/m while June private sector credit was roughly flat at 0.1% m/m, 3.4% y/y. July TD Securities inflation measure surged 0.9% m/m, 1.9% y/y. AUD/USD rose convincingly above resistance at 0.8160 and turned it to support, setting a new high for 2009, consolidating a monthly appreciation of 3.7%, and closing at 0.8363.

U.S. 2Q2009 GDP contracted −1.0% annualised with 1Q2009 revised down to −6.4% from −5.5%; personal consumption shrank more than expected at −1.2%. June durable goods orders fell −2.5%, ex-transportation rising 1.1%, and July consumer confidence fell to 46.6 from 49.3.

The ECB meets Thursday, 6 August, and is generally expected to hold rates steady at 1.0%. July CPI printed −0.6% y/y and June unemployment rose to 9.4%, the previous reading being revised down to 9.3%. July retail PMI slipped to 47.3 and July confidence indicators all registered mild gains, with consumer confidence printing −23 from −25 previous. EUR/USD traded within the upper portion of its current range, falling midweek then resurging on the U.S. GDP printing, to close at 1.4251.

The BoE meets Wednesday, 5 August, and is expected to hold their course steady. July GfK consumer confidence held at −25 for a second consecutive month. July Nationwide housing prices improved for a third month at 1.3%, improving to −6.2% y/y, and mortgage approvals rose in June to 47.6K. GBP/USD also appreciated into the highest portion of its current range and closed above the psychologically important 1.6600 level at 1.6703. EUR/GBP fell beneath support at 0.8600, beneath its MA-200 on four-hour charts, closing at 0.8529.

Canada’s May GDP printed a worse-than-expected −0.5%. The June raw materials price index rose 6.2% m/m. USD/CAD set a new 2009 low, touching 1.0748 on risk acceptance and crude oil, closing at 1.0772. This forms a potential double bottom with the neckline at 1.0920. AUD/CAD used Friday 24 July’s close at 0.8839 as entry to a bullish regression channel and respected it all week, rising to close at 0.9007.

The RBNZ left rates steady at 2.5% and maintained their dovish tone. July NBNZ business confidence improved to 18.7 from 5.5 previous and June’s trade balance printed a deficit of NZ$417.0M. NZD/USD traded within the upper reaches of its current range, ending poised beneath strong resistance at 0.6632, closing at 0.6619. AUD/NZD surged through resistance at 1.2468, closing at 1.2626.

Japan’s June retail trade shrank −0.3% m/m, −3.0% y/y, and June household spending grew only 0.2% m/m. June industrial production rose 2.4% m/m, improving the y/y measure to −23.4% from −29.5%, with July manufacturing PMI rising to 50.4 from 48.2, above the break-even level at 50.0. June CPI contracted −1.8% y/y, −0.7% y/y core, and the June jobless rate rose to 5.4%. USD/JPY entered a standard deviation channel on 6 April’s high of 101.43 and continues to respect it, as shown on the daily chart below:

EUR/JPY traded flat for the week, closing at 134.85. AUD/JPY continued its three-week uptrend but could not push through resistance at 79.60, closing at 79.12.