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Archive for July, 2009

Awaiting Friday: trading the volatile numbers

Recent “green shoots” have pushed multiple USD crosses to the extreme bearish edges of their current trading ranges, and, in the case of AUD/USD, to a new 2009 high. However, there has been a distinct lack of follow through in subsequent trading sessions despite low summer volumes keeping chart movements volatile, and therefore currencies continue [...]

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Corporate earnings remain mixed

Week ending 24 July 2009: In a week nearly bereft of fundamental data, corporate earnings remain mixed, with some impressive blowouts contrasting with stunning disappointments. The combination is keeping currencies, equities, commodities, and bond markets scrambling amongst low summer volumes.
Australia’s 2Q2009 PPI printed −0.8% q/q, 2.1% y/y, and CPI 0.5% q/q, 1.5% y/y. July DEWR [...]

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Corporate earnings surprising mainly to the upside

Week ending 17 July 2009: With corporate earnings surprising mainly to the upside, equities indices surged although commodities prices traded mixed. In a light data week, currency pairs remained within their summer ranges, with one notable exception.
Australia’s June NAB business confidence improved to 4 and conditions to −2, with 2Q2009 import prices falling −6.4% q/q [...]

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2nd Quarter 2009 corporate earnings season

Week ending 10 July 2009: With the onset of 2Q 2009 corporate earnings season, risk aversion returned to financial markets, giving the safe-haven currencies a small lift. Commodities fell, taking growth currencies with them.
The RBA left interest rates steady at 3.0% but emphasized downside economic risks. June unemployment ticked up to 5.8% with 21.4K jobs [...]

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The forex trading week was abbreviated by the U.S. holiday

Week ending 3 July 2009: The forex trading week was abbreviated by the U.S. holiday and traded with subdued volumes, seeing some exaggerated currency movements on renewed risk aversion but much consolidation within continuing ranges.
The RBA meets Tuesday, 7 July, and while a cut is possible they’re widely expected to remain on hold at 3.0%. [...]

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The U.S. economy: green shoots or crabgrass?

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke utilised the term “green shoots,” during a television news programme interview, to describe early symptoms of the U.S. recession easing on 15 March. That prognostication set off a global equities rally and sent business and consumer confidence surveys higher, albeit off record lows. But has the recession truly eased [...]

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