Week ending 26 June 2009 saw continued consolidation as the forex trading market sought direction in a light data week. The Swiss National Bank indirectly intervened through BIS to weaken CHF against EUR and USD, lending credence to the theory of 1.5000 as the EUR/CHF “line in the sand.”

In a light data week, the Australian April Conference Board leading indicator rose 0.7%. AUD/USD fell early in the week on risk aversion but regained its range and closed at 0.8067, roughly flat; traders note this is the fourth consecutive week with lower highs, potentially bearish pressure building.

The U.S. FOMC held interest rates unchanged at 0.0–0.25% and its quantitative easing schedule steady; the announcement balanced risks and possibilities to a hair and left markets searching for direction. The final print for 1Q2009 GDP was unchanged at −5.5% annualised, with personal consumption rising 1.4% q/q. May personal income rose 1.4% m/m but spending only 0.3%, with savings surging to 6.9%. May existing home sales rose 2.4% m/m, less than expected, while new home sales fell −0.6% and housing prices slipped −0.1%. May durable goods orders rose 1.8% m/m, 1.1% ex-transport, the second consecutive strong increase.

The ECB meets Thursday, 2 July, and is likely to remain on hold with rates at 1.0% to assess the effect of their liquidity measures in place. June PMIs printed 42.4 manufacturing, 44.5 services, and 44.4 composite, while the April current account printed a deficit of €5.9Bn, €9.2Bn n.s.a. April industrial new orders fell −1.0% m/m, down −35.5% y/y, and German June CPI rose 0.1% y/y, 0.0% EU harmonised. EUR/USD rose into the upper reaches of its current range but could not hold gains above 1.4135, closing at 1.4068.

In the U.K., Rightmove June housing prices broke their recent winning streak, falling −0.4% m/m, −5.5% y/y. GBP/USD continued rangebound between 1.6230 and 1.6600, closing at 1.6523, while EUR/GBP tightened within a triangle range, closing at 0.8511.

With no major data releases, the Canadian dollar traded in line with commodities, particularly crude oil, and equities prices. USD/CAD trended up for the fourth week, gaining 1.6% to close at 1.1539, and AUD/CAD rose strongly within a continuing regression channel, closing at 0.9309.

New Zealand 1Q2009 GDP printed −1.0% q/q, −2.7% y/y, the fifth consecutive contraction and the largest in 18 years; the 4Q2008 reading was revised down from −0.9% to −1.0%. The 1Q2009 current account balance printed a deficit of NZ$1.247Bn. NZD/USD closed at 0.6456, the upper edge of its range from 0.6260, and AUD/NZD closed at 1.2491 and may be finishing another trend leg, best seen on daily charts.

Japan’s May national CPI fell −1.1% y/y, with or without fresh food, and −0.5% ex-food and energy. The May trade balance printed a surplus of ¥299.8Bn although merchandise trade exports are down −40.9% y/y, imports −42.4%. 2Q2009 industrial surveys improved markedly, with BSI large manufacturing rising to −13.2 from −66, and large all industry to −22.4 from −51.3, while the April tertiary industrial index rose 2.2% m/m and the all-industry activity 2.6%. USD/JPY closed at 95.19, the lower edge of its range from 98.60. EUR/JPY could not hold gains above 134.75, closing at 133.92, and AUD/JPY, the risk barometer, continued to dither sideways and slightly down, closing at 76.79.