Week ending 24 April 2009: Continued consolidation in forex trading, with many currency pairs returning to the previous week’s levels in a short-term trader’s market.

Australian 1Q2009 PPI printed −0.4% q/q, 4.0% y/y, and CPI printed 0.1% and 2.5%. April DEWR skilled vacancies fell −8.9% and tax receipts are expected to contract more than the AU$115Bn originally estimated. AUD/USD fell sharply early in the week to below the psychological 0.7000 level but rebounded to trade unchanged, closing at 0.7223.

The FOMC meets Wednesday, 29 April, and is expected to confirm their current position and course for an extended time. March durable goods orders fell −0.8% m/m, −0.6% ex transport, and April ABC consumer confidence improved to −47. March existing home sales fell −3.0% m/m to 4.57M units, while new home sales fell −0.6% to 356K units, indicating possible consolidation at a low level.

The Eurozone April ZEW survey of economic sentiment rose substantially to 11.8 versus 0.0 expected. The February current account registered a deficit of €8.1Bn. April PMIs printed 36.7 manufacturing, 43.1 services, and 40.5 composite, with February industrial new orders falling −0.6% m/m, −34.5 y/y. The German April ZEW printed 13.0 economic sentiment but −93.6 current situation, and the Ifo 83.9 expectations, 83.7 business climate, and 83.6 current assessment. EUR/USD consolidated early in the week, then rose through several resistance levels, broke above its price channel, and closed at 1.3242.

A horrible week for U.K. data saw 1Q2009 GDP falling −1.9% q/q, −4.1% y/y, although March retail sales held at 0.3% m/m, 1.5% y/y. March CPI printed 0.2% m/m, 2.9% y/y, with 1.7% y/y core. March jobless claims rose by 73.7K, with the claimant count rising to 4.5%. April Rightmove housing prices rose 1.8% m/m but are down −7.3% y/y. However, it was the budget announcement that moved the market, with deteriorating balance sheet sending EUR/GBP climbing back above 0.9000 to close at 0.9033, a 2.4% change, while GBP/USD fell as low as 1.4396 before rebounding from its 200-MA on four-hour charts and closing at 1.4655.

The BoC cut rates to 0.25%, committed to leave rates at that level until mid-2010, and discussed the circumstances required for QE measures. March leading indicators dropped −1.3% m/m, with February retail sales falling to 0.2% m/m, 0.6% less autos, and wholesale sales down −0.6% m/m. USD/CAD could not break 1.2500, bounced from its 200-MA on four-hour charts, and fell to close at 1.2093, while AUD/CAD consolidated within its current range to close at 0.8736.

The RBNZ meets Thursday, 30 April, and may lower rates between 25–50bps. In a light data week, March credit card spending is down −5.0 y/y while visitor arrivals dropped −0.5%. NZD/USD mirrored AUD/USD, closing at 0.5724, while AUD/NZD consolidated within its current range and closed at 1.2612.

The Japanese February leading index decreased to 75.0, the coincident index to 86.0, both stabilizing at low levels. March merchandise trade balance narrowed to a surplus of ¥11Bn, with the adjusted balance printing a deficit of ¥97.1Bn, exports improving to −45.6% y/y, imports to −36.7%. USD/JPY fell beneath its upward-sloping trendline, dating from 21 January, to close at 97.11 on U.S. budget concerns. EUR/JPY consolidated within its current range, closing at 128.61, and AUD/JPY fell into a lower range to close at 70.15.