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The U.S. GDP announcement for the first quarter of 2009 is slated for release 29 April 2009 at 12:30 PM GMT (10:30 PM Canberra time) and is widely expected to contract somewhere between −4.0% and −5.0%. Although economic conditions have not improved significantly between 1Q2009 and 4Q2008, contractions in such categories as consumer spending and [...]
Week ending 24 April 2009: Continued consolidation in forex trading, with many currency pairs returning to the previous week’s levels in a short-term trader’s market. Australian 1Q2009 PPI printed −0.4% q/q, 4.0% y/y, and CPI printed 0.1% and 2.5%. April DEWR skilled vacancies fell −8.9% and tax receipts are expected to contract more than the [...]
In the second half of 2008, with risk aversion driving both forex trading markets and equities bourses, a tight correlation developed between the U.S. dollar and shares price indices. In particular, this correlation was sharply developed between the Wall Street S&P 500 index and EUR/USD, caused by investors selling off these stock shares and exchanging [...]
Forex week ending 17 April 2009: A week of consolidation and shifting balances in the forex trading market, with risk aversion easing its stranglehold but risk acceptance not yet palpable. Fundamental data reflects the rate of economic descent easing in the U.S., U.K., and emerging economies, continuing in Japan and parts of Asia, and accelerating [...]
While the risk aversion trade no longer has a stranglehold on forex trading, the market remains somewhat aloof to fundamental and technical pressures that normally hold sway. And, although the new trading pattern is not yet fully set nor predictable, some guidelines have emerged in the previous two weeks. When fear returns to dominate markets, [...]
Week ending 10 April 2009, In a light and holiday-shortened forex trading week, global equities continued to rally as underlying market dynamics steadied, with the VIX volatility index falling to 36.53, a level not seen since September, and the TED spread holding below 100bps at 95.58. The RBA cut rates by 25bps to 3.0%, citing [...]
Currencies, commodities, and stocks remain tied to risk aversion. Although currency charts have resumed responding to technical and fundamental pressures to some degree, that response can be derailed by a flash of trouble on the global financial front. The risk events looming on the forex trading market’s horizon won’t be found on the average fundamental [...]
Week ending 3 April 2009: With global financial markets shaking off risk aversion, currencies resumed answering fundamental and technical pressures to some extent and repat flows into USD and JPY reversed. Dismal data was shrugged off as “lagging indicators” and any surprise to the upside was touted in the search for a bottom. The RBS [...]
