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Archive for December, 2008

Currency pair behaviour in a choppy market

It’s been said before that different currency pairs have individual characteristics, rather like personalities, and that each must be individually studied and analysed to be traded profitably. At this time, near the close of a momentous forex trading year, that’s even more true than normal.
Although this spring’s massive sell-off, dominating markets from mid-September to early [...]

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Market Update

Week ending 19 December 2008: Market conditions continue fading to normal as reflected by the TED spread and the VIX index. USD’s role as a safe-haven currency was rocked by the cut to near-zero rates and commodity currencies were punished with crude oil falling to levels not seen since February 2004.
The October Westpac-MI leading index [...]

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Market Update

Week ending 12 December 2008, Political brinksmanship in Washington over the proposed automakers’ bailout drove global equities up and down like yo-yos, with risk aversion and currencies the shadows and USD’s status as a safe-haven currency the loser.
Australian workers lost −15.6K jobs in November and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, while ANZ job [...]

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TIC flows: key to understanding USD appreciation

One of the helpful fundamental datasets provided by the U.S. Treasury Department is the monthly Treasury International Capital data, or TIC flows (always measured in USD). This is designed to monitor the “flow of funds” into and out of the United States, by measuring the amount of foreign securities purchased by U.S. citizens, and the [...]

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Forex Market

Week ending 5 December 2008: Massive rate cuts by multiple central banks around the world had little effect on forex trading markets as risk aversion remains investors’ main concern. More fundamental signs of the severity of the economic downturn were also ignored, with many currency pairs settling or remaining in well-marked ranges.
The RBA cut rates [...]

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Forex trading market

Week ending 28 November 2008. In a trading week with few fundamental announcements, further diminished by the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, the E.U. proposed an economic stimulus package of EUR200Bn and the U.S. government planned bailouts for Citigroup and the frozen consumer credit markets. Although some equity markets rebounded, risk aversion and uncertainty remain high, and [...]

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