Thursday, July 31st, 2008 •
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Candlesticks and intuition: seeking confirmation in a volatile market
Once a forex trader understands that candlesticks give an indication of market psychology and enthusiasm (or lack thereof) at a given point in time, deciphering their meaning becomes intuitive.
Consider the current one-hour chart of USD/JPY, below:
It takes little imagination to see that the candlesticks inside the violet [...]
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Tuesday, July 29th, 2008 •
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Crude oil continues to retreat from record highs due to demand destruction in a weakening global economic scenario. Mild U.S. dollar appreciation did not alter established trading ranges, merely the price’s location within them.
Australian 2Q2008 PPI rose by 1.0% q/q, less than expected, lowering the y/y measure to 4.7% from 4.8% previously, another sign the [...]
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Saturday, July 26th, 2008 •
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At the turn of the year, AUD/CAD entered a bullish linear regression channel and has remained there to this date; however, there are indications this trend may consolidate at its current level or reverse.
This channel is best seen on daily charts, as illustrated below:
Although a case can be made for an earlier entry, the channel [...]
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Monday, July 21st, 2008 •
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The forex trading week began on a risk-aversion downslope, with an old-fashioned run on U.S. mortgage bank IndyMac and fears for mortgage financiers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. However, when the U.S. financial system survived and 2Q2008 earnings for the industry sector were not as gory as expected, the price of crude oil slumped over [...]
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Friday, July 18th, 2008 •
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The accelerator oscillator, introduced by trader Bill M. Williams in his book Trading Chaos (Marketplace Books by John Wiley & Sons, 1995) measures the acceleration or deceleration of momentum—the rate of change in the “current driving force”—in the price action of a currency pair. For the mathematically inclined, the equation in two parts is:
AO = [...]
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Monday, July 14th, 2008 •
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Although it was a difficult and volatile week for financial institutions, global stock markets, and commodities indices, the forex trading market remained relatively flat. Political turmoil in the Middle East again pushed crude oil to record highs, leading to further depreciation of the U.S. dollar and gains in commodities currencies.
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index [...]
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Thursday, July 10th, 2008 •
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A number of financial analysts are discussing the case for coordinated central bank intervention to support and strengthen the U.S. dollar. Such discussions often focus on the fact that, when one of the major economic players on the globalised financial stage isn’t carrying its weight, the whole show suffers. In the case of USD, of [...]
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Tuesday, July 8th, 2008 •
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With crude oil and other commodities continuing to set historically high prices, international financial and political leaders are exhibiting less patience with U.S. dollar weakness and intervention other than rhetoric becomes increasingly possible.
The RBA left interest rates on hold at 7.25%, as expected; however, the accompanying press release, while noting stronger short-term inflationary pressure, anticipated [...]
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